Hey folks,
Lets make informed guesses out here. Do you even think there will be one party with a majority?  Of course, assuming that the elections are free and fair (which will probably not happen). As I see it, no party will be able to have a majority in the parliament, specially with the proportional system in place as well. However, I believe that Maoists will be the ones to lose their face again. I doubt if they can win more than a few seats under first past the post system.  It is highly unlikely for them to win more than a few seats because UML is way too popular and has a great grass root network. I won't be surprised if they don't win a single seat in first past the post system. I believe they will gather a few seats in the proportional system.

NC will benefit the most from the division among the communists. I think UML will do slightly better than it did last time when it was divided into ML and UML. NC will get more seats in the first past the post system than any other parties. Proportional system will possibly divide equal number of seats to NC and UML.

 Maoists are a weaker force compared to then ML because most of the ML leaders were well established and known to the public and they had been winning elections from their constituencies. Maoists' case is totally different. Some of them joined Maoists party after losing elections-many even dub them as taking arms because they lost general elections. So, maoists will face a battle to save their faces. Its pretty tough out there for them. Prachanda was hoping that UML will let him have communist votes but UML turned its back on him. He will certainly lose the election in KTM but might lose both the elections (unless of course, they use force).

Anybody ready to give their percentages? Mine would be as follows:
NC-39%
UML-33%
Maoists-7%
Others-21%

MN Nepali,

If you are expecting RRP-Nepal to win 15% of total seats, then how will you save the king man? You mean stability in Nepal is a distant dream!

Definately centrist parties like UML and NC are expected to do better in the election as in the past, but Samami, you have been too biased towards Maoists. Republicanism is a hot selling issue in Nepalese politics now. The only reason Maoists may not be able to beat UML and NC is their cadres' excesses and highhandedness. They are also not adept in election campaigning and political manauvoring. UML and NC are expert at selling political agendas among people. Please take out at least 2% from every other pies and add it to Maoists. 

 

I am expecting more or less the same result as majority of u posted like

.
Congress: 30%

UML: 30%

Tarai: 10%

Maoists: 20%

Others: 10%

However just have a feeling what the maoist will do then. Are they going to keep quiet?

No way LUTERA DHAMKAYERA KHANE BANI LAGEKO KA JANCHA RA ?

KHANA LAI MEHANAT GARNU PARCHA, GAROO CHA.

 

So the Nepali will again be back to pre Andolan-II era. Only one difference will be no RAJTANTRA.

 

So if we want to see Nepal progress why not to give these terrorist a chance.(BADHYATA)

They already know by now how different is BHANNA and GARNA.(One can imagine by isolating themselves out of government)

 

When they have the power at least chanda uthaune ta banda huncha
Worst case MA JANTA LAI TA ALI KATA BHAYENI RAHAT HUNCHA.
SARKARI PAISA LUTCHAN BASCHAN. AILE SAMMA KUN CHAHI SARKAR LE PAISA LE K GAREKO CHA RA.

Except worst case RAMRAII HOLA  BHANNE AASH GARNE BAHEK CHANCE CHAINA.

Just my feeling what are u thinking?

 

Thanks

Girija party -35%
Naam matra ko communist-25%
Banduke Communist(manchemara communist)-10%
madesh a / bikas party-10%
gyane party-10%
bhasbhuse party-5%
YCL dhandali -500000000000000000 %

chunaav ko matadan pratisaat 40-50% jeevan ko maya sabai lai cha, khola pari ycl cha..

Its sad to see the people still have the same mentality towards the Maoist.Folks,political scenario has been changed and its time for all to analysis the political situation in a way which brings amendement in Nepal.U people are still scared of Maoist that they r gonna kidnap ur family or sth like that.....I can understand everybody love their life and their near and dear ones.Those were their steps to come up to the parliament.If u think,wat do u think the rebel group who used to have sickel and khukuri as their primary weapons make their way to the govt.Its obvious they adapted any possible ways.Leaders like Sher Bahadur,Girija who used to think Maoist is nothin and used to hate more than anybody are compelled to go after the manifesto of same party.Thats kind a funny.Learn sth from them.Even ur great leaders have changed their mentality and now its ur turn.

  I don't care what the results come.....but couldn't resist the same mentality

Do not scare of Maoists. We have to agree that there were some mistakes by the Maoists during the war period. But we have to realize that these NC and UML leaders did nothing for us but themselves. Are you guys thinking the current situation the country is having is due to NC and UML? 100% wrong. So why do not you want to give credit to maoist for this. NC and UML  are run from Delhi and Washington. If they win the constitution will be the same one as they made after 2046 BS revolution.

 

WHAT DEAL DO U THINK DID GIRIJA HAD WITH THE ARMY? CONGRESS AND UML BOTH WOULD FLIP AFTER THE ELECTIONS.

KING WOULD BE IN POWER IF ELECTIONS HAPPEN.  GRRIJA WOULD RETIRE AND S B THAPA WILL BE IN ENOUGH PRESSUE TO SAVE THE KING.

WELL LETS SEE IF THERE WILL BE ELECTIONS BEFORE WE TALK ALL THIS. MAOISTS ARE THRASHING EVERYONE OUT OF COUNTRYSIDE.

THEIR TIME FOR A FALL.

 

Danger, I have no idea as to what they had in the dark room. It is worthless just to make the speculations. I don't believe major parties (basically UML and NC) will flip over their stand regarding monarchy. As a matter of fact, I don't think it is that much relavent to talk about monarcy too. The issue of monarchy is very trivial in the face of other burning issues. Next, Maoists are just the scarecrow. They could do better with the arms but not with the brains. But parties should work prudently to let them come in the mainstream and give them credit for the good things they did (eventhough it is just one out of hundreds).

Gazadi le Sahi Bolyo....;-)

YCL is a curse for Maoists. Because of their nonesense activities, I believe Maoists are losing the ground they built up in the last one decade. "Bhir bata ladale goru lai ram ram bhanna sakinchha, kandha thapna sakidaina!"

Maoist will be back to jungle after the election. That's for sure.

I felt shameful  for the most of the people's opinion  at sajha about maiost...

they pretend & thought maiost  as terriost much more then AL-kayeda/& others terriost organization...

but reality is not like that..maiost r not horrible as u think, listen & say...

i accept that they had done some  mistakes at the past  & doing little at now to..but

their approach is for the development of nation development of Nationality...& try to stablish a good system..

at least they r trying...they have ideas plans & motivation for that too......

what the f**k the Congress,UML,Panche sh*t done for the country?

does those currupted bastards have any plan for future any idea for leading the country..instead of asking India/US for any step to take on their own country...

so.....i dont say maiost would win majority but..they should for our  country's progress....

jay nepal.....

machhikni ra*di ko choro aatankabadi terrorist. tero bajeharule 5% vote laayo bhane pani tyo sabai banduk ko bhar ma ho,

Three Maoists arrested for assaulting UML candidate

Kantipur Report